FOREIGN POLICY OF NORTH KOREA AFTER KIM JONG-UN CAME TO POWER

Abstract

In this article the author, relying on a neo-realist approach in international relations theory, explores North Korea's place in the system of political relations of the Asia-Pacific region. The author focuses on the analysis of North Korea's current foreign policy, as well as the international community's position on the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It is worth adding that the paper analyzes the influence of the US President Trump administration on Pyongyang's foreign policy moves. Among the main reasons for the change in DPRK foreign policy, the author highlights the sanctions pressure of the great powers on Pyongyang through the UN, Donald Trump's uncompromising position on the issue of North Korea's nuclear disarmament and the fact that, in general, Kim Jong-un has successfully ended the nuclear program, so there is no point in developing it further. The author then makes two assumptions, using a scenario forecasting method, about the further development of the negotiation process between Pyongyang and Washington, which began in 2018. The first prediction, which is based on the ideas of neo-realists Mirsheimer D. and Waltz K., suggests that North Korea will not give up nuclear weapons, as the complete denuclearization of the country threatens to undermine the stability of Kim Jong-un's regime. The second prediction explores the likelihood that Kim Jong-un will give up nuclear weapons and implement economic reforms similar to those in Vietnam in the 1980s to make the DPRK's economy part of the capitalist system.