XINJIANG IN THE STRUCTURE OF KAZAKHSTAN–CHINA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS AND DRIVERS OF COOPERATION

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the role of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) within the framework of the strategic partnership between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the People's Republic of China. The study aims to identify the key drivers of cooperation and institutional constraints associated with Xinjiang and to assess their impact on bilateral relations. The research is based on the theory of complex interdependence developed by R. Keohane and J. Nye, employing institutional analysis, comparative analysis, event analysis, and scenario forecasting. Particular attention is devoted to Xinjiang's infrastructure role in the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Middle Corridor (TITR). The study analyzes the institutional designs of the Khorgos Eastern Gate SEZ and Khorgos ICBC, the impact of the newly established Xinjiang Pilot Free Trade Zone, and regulatory phytosanitary barriers in agricultural trade. Furthermore, it evaluates the efficiency and limits of "quiet diplomacy" mechanisms regarding the Kazakh diaspora and highlights critical hydropolitical issues in the Ili and Black Irtysh transboundary river basins driven by the intensification of water withdrawal by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. The findings demonstrate that Xinjiang represents a structurally ambivalent factor: while promoting economic connectivity, it simultaneously generates long-term risks in the humanitarian and environmental spheres due to deep bilateral asymmetry. The practical significance of the research consists in formulating recommendations for relevant public authorities of Kazakhstan to improve transport cooperation and water diplomacy, as well as proposing three alternative forecasting scenarios through 2035: Pragmatic Convergence, Institutional Breakthrough, and Tense Balancing.