POWER BALANCE IN CENTRAL ASIA: EXTERNAL POWERS IN THE REGION

Abstract

This article explores the evolving balance of power in Central Asia through an in-depth examination of external state actors and the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It begins by establishing the theoretical framework of the balance of power in international relations, highlighting its historical evolution and its application in contemporary geopolitical contexts. The core of the article is divided into two main analytical sections.

The first section examines the involvement of external powers—primarily Russia and China—in Central Asia. It details Russia’s enduring influence through historical, economic, and military ties, including its use of energy infrastructure and regional security cooperation frameworks like the CSTO. China’s growing footprint is assessed through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative, large-scale infrastructure investments, and increasing trade and energy cooperation. The paper outlines how both powers strategically compete and sometimes cooperate in shaping Central Asia’s political and economic future.

The second section delves into the SCO’s institutional role in recalibrating regional geopolitics. It assesses the organization’s contributions to regional security, economic cooperation, and multilateral diplomacy. The article argues that the SCO serves as a stabilizing framework that helps mediate external influence while offering Central Asian states a platform to assert collective interests.

Using historical analysis, contemporary data, and institutional review, the article concludes that Central Asia’s balance of power is dynamically shifting, with China gaining increased influence alongside Russia’s traditional dominance. The SCO, while often perceived as an extension of Chinese and Russian interests, also offers a mechanism for regional countries to navigate these power dynamics with greater agency.