THE ROLE OF THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR IN THE DIVERSIFICATION OF CENTRAL ASIA’S MARITIME ACCESS

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),  can enhance Central Asian countries’ trade opportunities and provide Central Asian countries with alternative routes to the Indian Ocean. The research compares three different southbound transportation options, including the Western Caspian route through Iran, the Trans-Afghan corridor, and the CPEC route through its northern expansion via Xinjiang. The objective of the research is to examine each of these corridors for trade between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan based upon their transport design feasibility, risks, and strategic value. The study employs a structured comparative analysis of each corridor's infrastructure quality and connectivity, exposure to geopolitical risk, investment models, and vulnerability to disruptions; in addition, trade compatibility is assessed for economic effectiveness among the shortlisted countries. While the Western Caspian Corridor is fairly developed, it is also subject to significant sanction-related risks; the Trans-Afghan Corridor is associated with significant challenges regarding continuity and stability; and lastly, despite congestion constraints, the CPEC Alignment has more opportunities for integrated multimodal connectivity than the others. The analysis indicates that CPEC continues developing a much broader function than just a direct linear transit corridor into being a true multi-vector connectivity platform for increased strategic flexibility and decreased vulnerability on account of geopolitical disruption. The contribution to the field of research regarding developing corridors in Eurasia is positioning CPEC toward a more strategically connected transportation system while diminishing its focus from that of a bilateral infrastructure project to that of a connectivity system. For Central Asian states seeking diversified resilient maritime access routes, this research provides valuable guidance.