A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGIES IN UZBEKISTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This article compares renewable-energy transition strategies in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and examines how legacy energy systems, institutional capacity, investment models, and infrastructure readiness shape implementation. The study applies a structured qualitative comparison based on policy documents, official statistics, reports by international organizations, and peer-reviewed research. It identifies two distinct pathways. Uzbekistan follows an accelerated, investment-led model based on public-private partnerships, independent power producers, and large-scale solar and wind deployment. Kazakhstan follows an incremental, legacy-constrained model shaped by coal-fired generation, district heating, energy-intensive industry, and the social costs of structural adjustment. The comparison reveals different implementation gaps: Uzbekistan risks expanding generation faster than its grid, tariff system, off-taker, and domestic technical capacity can adapt, whereas Kazakhstan risks adopting advanced policy instruments without sufficient fossil-fuel displacement. The article argues that installed capacity and policy targets are insufficient indicators of transition progress. More meaningful evaluation requires attention to actual renewable generation, grid integration, fossil-fuel displacement, fiscal sustainability, and distributional effects.

Funding: This research paper was supported by Ministry of Science and
Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan under Grant «AP26103599
Challenges and opportunities for regional cooperation in sustainable water
resources management in Central Asia»