TRANSFORMATION OF RUSSIA’S ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA IN A MULTIPOLAR CONTEXT: GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC SCENARIOS AFTER 2022

Abstract

Amid the transformation of the modern international system
and the strengthening of multipolar trends, an analysis of changing geopolitical
positions of states in strategically important regions is particularly relevant. In
this context, Central Asia is a key area where the interests of leading global actors
intersect. This study aims to identify the changing nature of Russia’s role in the
region after 2022.
The aim of the study is to comprehensively assess the transformation of
Russian policy in Central Asia and identify key areas and ideas for its further
development in the face of increasing competition from other external players.
The scientific significance of the study lies in its systematization of current
trends in the development of international relations in Central Asia, while its
practical significance lies in the potential use of the obtained results for developing
foreign policy strategies. The methodological basis of the study is theoretical
concepts of international relations, as well as comparative and historical analysis.
The study found that, under current conditions, Russia’s economic influence
is declining relative to China’s, while the European Union and the United States
maintain a limited presence.
The results of the analysis suggest the emergence of a new model of regional interaction, in which Russia retains a significant role in ensuring security
but faces increasing competition in the economic sphere. The study’s value lies
in clarifying the nature of these changes and forecasting possible development
scenarios, including adaptive leadership and equal competition. The practical
significance of this work lies in the potential application of its findings in
developing strategies for foreign policy and economic interaction in Central Asia.